Holy Roman Empire

Early in the morning, Franz had just finished his morning exercise and had not yet had breakfast when Foreign Minister Weisenberg hurried over with bad news.

"Your Majesty, our embassy in Bolivia has sent word that two days ago, Chilean forces invaded Bolivia, disrupting the balance in South America."

The reason the Austrian Government was concerned about this war was mainly due to the saltpeter trade. Because of the colonial relationships in South America, Austria’s relations with Chile and Argentina were not particularly good.

After the discovery of rich saltpeter deposits in Bolivia’s coastal Atacama province along the Pacific in 1863, it became a major import area for Austria’s saltpeter.

With the increase in commercial trade, relations between Austria and Bolivia warmed significantly, almost reaching the status of close allies.

However, the strategic focus of the Vienna Government was not on South America; the resources invested in the region were very limited, without further action.

Nevertheless, as a major power on the international stage, it certainly played the role of a troublemaker. The reason it didn’t gain much fame was mainly that its British counterparts were too dominant, overshadowing everyone else.

A small investment does not mean no investment at all. The Vienna Government did support its allies in South America, but the relationships were not deep, merely partnerships.

Bolivia was one of them and received military assistance from Austria. Unfortunately, the Bolivian government was not very astute, swinging back and forth as England, France, and Austria competed with each other in South America.

Swinging back and forth requires capital; with it, this is flexible diplomatic policy, but without it, it’s like walking a tightrope. Undoubtedly, Bolivia was a country without capital.

As for the trade in saltpeter, it seemed important, but in reality, it was just so-so. For England, France, and Austria, getting cheap saltpeter would be better; without it, they could produce it on their own.

In an era without chemical fertilizers, the demand for saltpeter was not very high. Even if the cost of producing it themselves was higher, it wouldn’t pose a challenge for the three major powers.

Moreover, Bolivia was just one saltpeter exporting country, far from a monopoly. Chile, its neighbor, was also an exporter of saltpeter.

History once again proved that being indecisive gets nowhere. After failed attempts at courtship by all sides, Bolivia was abandoned, and Chile leaned towards the British.

During the period of independence wars, Chile and Bolivia were allies, fighting together against Spanish colonial rule. However, it’s easy to share hardships, but hard to share wealth.

The sovereignty of the Atacama Desert, on the border of Chile, Bolivia, and Peru, had never been clearly determined during the Spanish colonial rule.

After independence, Bolivia took control of the Antofagasta area in the central Atacama Desert, Peru occupied the northern Tarapaca region of the desert, and Chile took the southern region. All three countries declared sovereignty over the desert area.

If this desert had been devoid of resources, the matter might have been left unresolved. Unfortunately, not only did this area have resources, but they were also very abundant, leading to conflict.

Chile was the stronger of the three and now backed by the British, it possessed the qualifications to use force.

Concerned, Franz asked, "Have the British intervened?"

Franz was not interested in the background or the outcome; in the end, it all boiled down to interests. Right or wrong, in international politics, is, in fact, the least important aspect.

In the Imperialist era, discussing right and wrong typically meant either the sides were evenly matched or a major power was involved; otherwise, justice only belonged to the victor.

Foreign Minister Weisenberg: "So far, we have not found any signs of British intervention. From the standpoint of interest, maintaining stability in South America is more in line with British interests.

If Chile wins the war and completely monopolizes saltpeter exports, that’s not what the British would like to see.

Of course, that’s just the analysis of apparent interests. If the British have a secret agreement with Chile, that’s a different matter.

Our relationship with Chile is very cold, and our local strength is limited. In the short term, we do not have the ability to confirm whether the two parties have undercover dealings."

Franz paced back and forth. He had not paid much attention to South American history and vaguely remembered that there was once a Pacific War between Chile and Bolivia and Peru.

He was completely unclear about the exact time, the events, and the attitudes held by the powers. Even if he had been clear, it would have been of no use due to the influence of the butterfly effect, the international situation had already changed dramatically.

Franz: "Setting aside external factors, who do you think will win this war?"

Foreign Minister Weisenberg: "I am more optimistic about the Chileans. Militarily, Chile is clearly superior to Bolivia.

Although in recent years Bolivia has learned military tactics from us, the Bolivian government is too foolish.

If they had only learned the military systems of any single powerful European country, they might have been successful. Instead, they chose to learn from multiple countries at once and ended up with a misfit army.

Just from a military standpoint, Bolivia’s chances of victory are close to zero. However, with intervention from other countries, things become less certain.

Relations among South American countries are intricately complex, and it’s hard to get a clear picture in a short time. This war, sparked by the ownership of the Atacama Desert, also involves Peru.

Among the three countries, Chile currently has the strongest military power. Neither Peru nor Bolivia alone can match the Chileans.

With common interests at stake, it is very likely that the two countries will join forces. If Bolivia and Peru set aside their differences, the direction of this war becomes difficult to predict."

Franz was very hesitant about whether to intervene in the South American war or not. The main issue was still input and return; he was not sure if the final outcome would be proportional.

Austria’s power in the South American region was limited, and relying solely on the forces of Austrian South America, there was simply no qualification to intervene.

As for the military forces of Austrian Central America, they could not be easily deployed either, otherwise the balance in North America would be disrupted. Without sufficient power to deter, no one could guarantee that the United States and the Confederate States wouldn’t take advantage of the situation.

It certainly wasn’t worth the risk to venture into the South American war. Franz still knew his priorities; it was the growth of the United States that was the threat, not Chile, which wasn’t even worth mentioning.

To make any significant impact, Chile would have to annex Argentina. This was clearly impossible, not to mention whether the great powers would agree, Argentina was not weaker than them.

After hesitating for a moment, Franz made a decision, "Let’s wait and see for now, and maintain neutrality as long as our interests are not harmed."

This was the safest approach, as Austria’s interests in the South American region weren’t significant enough to warrant a substantial investment.

Even if they were to intervene, it would have to be that they were asked to intervene, not offering themselves up on a platter.

Once nationalism rises in small nations, they all share a common problem, which is the loss of self-awareness.

Intervening before they sort out their victory or defeat would win no one’s gratitude.

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It wasn’t just Austria that chose to observe the situation; England and France also opted for observation.

South American countries had numerous conflicts, and the war between Chile and Bolivia might even trigger a major South American melee.

It would clearly be a passive move to get involved prematurely. If they backed the wrong side, even the great powers would suffer heavy losses.

Not to mention, a market for goods could be completely lost. Under normal circumstances, small South American countries don’t have the audacity to say no to major nations, but that could change if someone backs them up.

...

In Bolivia, since the war with Chile erupted, President Illarion Dasa was having a hard time.

Unlike the fervent nationalists within the country, as a national leader, Illarion Dasa still had self-awareness.

Militarily, Bolivia was indeed no match for Chile. Not only that, but Bolivia also lacked international support.

It wasn’t his fault. Bolivia hadn’t entered the era of democracy yet, and the so-called government elections were essentially controlled behind the scenes by the military caudillos.

The people behind the scenes wanted to play balance among the great powers, and the government that was put forward could naturally not refuse. However, such diplomatic balancing was not easy to play, and Illarion Dasa lacked the ability to manage it.

Now that war had broken out, not a single country among the great powers was explicitly supporting them.

It should be noted that from the perspective of observers in this era, Chile was the one who invaded Bolivia first.

Under normal circumstances, public opinion should sympathize with the victim. In such a context, at the very least, there would be a verbal condemnation of Chile’s military invasion.

However, Bolivia’s diplomatic balancing had only failed a few years ago, and the governments of England, France, and Austria were still holding grudges. Globally, the Bolivian government had been having a tough time in recent years.

Now that the three great powers haven’t made a statement, other countries, unconcerned with the matter, naturally wouldn’t risk offending the major powers by seeking justice for Bolivia.

President Illarion Dasa: "Gentlemen, the war has begun. This war relates to the fate of Bolivia, and we cannot afford to lose.

If we are defeated, we will not only lose our most vital source of wealth— the saltpeter mines; we will also lose our most important access to the sea, forever becoming a landlocked country.

For the great Republic of Bolivia, I hope everyone will do their utmost, striving to win this war."

Foreign Minister Preta Gul: "Your Excellency, the issues on the battlefield must be resolved by the military. Besides doing good logistical work, the only thing we can do is seek solutions outside the battlefield.

To increase our chances of winning in this war, I propose we temporarily ally with Peru, who has as many conflicts with Chile as we do, and jointly combat the Chileans."

Left with no choice in this nation dominated by military factions, Preta Gul, despite knowing full well that Bolivia was no match for Chile, dared not say it outright, only resorting to artistic touches to beautify the reality as much as possible.

President Illarion Dasa nodded: "Hmm, that’s a good proposal. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should quickly send someone to contact the Peruvian government; as long as their demands are not too excessive, we can agree to them for now, as we are in need of allies.

Are there any other proposals?"

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