Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 524: Austria-Poland Conflict

The British establishment of a grain reserve system also affected the international grain trade market, finally stabilizing the previously plummeting grain prices.

However, this had little real impact as the issue of oversupply remained unresolved. While Russia was blamed for the drastic drop in grain prices, clever observers knew that the Austrian government was also a major culprit.

Since these were smart individuals, they naturally weighed the pros and cons. Criticizing Russia was no big deal since even the Russian government had grown accustomed to being criticized.

Austria, however, was a different matter. The grain dumping by the Austrian government earlier in the year wouldn’t have been as successful without the involvement of domestic capitalists in various countries.

If this were exposed, the implicated interest groups would be massive. Very few people were willing to take on such a thankless task.

As Christmas approached, Vienna was already imbued with the holiday spirit. The winter of 1872 was unusually warm, with no snow and cold winds were rare.

It was at this time that trouble came knocking. On December 21, 1872, the Polish government issued a diplomatic note to Austria, demanding the return of Polish lands that had been forcibly taken, or else there would be consequences.

Upon receiving this diplomatic note, the Austrian government was stunned, and Franz was taken aback as well. He simply couldn’t fathom what terrible consequences they were threatening.

Franz was aware that anti-Austrian sentiments were running high in Poland recently. However, he didn’t take it seriously. The strong never care about the thoughts of the weak.

In his view, no matter how much noise the Poles made, it would amount to nothing more than shouting slogans at home, perhaps submitting a few diplomatic protest notes, and then things would go on as usual.

In the years following the partition of Poland by Prussia, Russia, and Austria, the Polish government had repeatedly demanded the return of its lost territories from the Austrian government.

Franz understood this behavior. Whether the land could be reclaimed or not, the government had to at least go through the motions, otherwise, how could they justify themselves to the people?

The Austrian government had consistently ignored the Poles, essentially acting as if they didn’t exist. What Franz never expected was that the Polish government would dare to submit a strongly worded diplomatic note.

This was no small matter. A formal diplomatic note was very different from grumbling behind closed doors—it required accountability.

There was nothing more to be said—Franz immediately convened a cabinet meeting to address the Polish government’s audacity.

“What has gotten into the Poles? Or has someone emboldened them to think they can act so arrogantly toward us?”

Those who knew Franz understood that he was angry. Austria had secretly supported Poland’s independence without asking for anything in return, yet now the Polish government was being ungrateful and pushing its luck.

A glance at history would show that the territorial disputes between Austria and Poland were a mess. In such situations, strength was the only argument that mattered.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg explained, “Your Majesty, Poland is an agricultural powerhouse. After the agricultural crisis broke out, Poland’s agricultural imports and exports sharply declined.

Recently, in response to the crisis, we increased tariffs on Polish agricultural imports, which provoked strong dissatisfaction from the Polish government.

About 34% of Poland’s agricultural products are exported to Austria, where they are processed and then sold on the international market. After the tariff increase, the agricultural trade between the two countries plummeted by two-thirds.

This has led to a significant amount of unsold agricultural products in Poland, causing a severe social crisis and destabilizing the political situation there.

The Polish government’s issuance of a diplomatic note at this time may be related to their domestic situation, as they might be trying to divert attention from internal conflicts.”

This was an unavoidable issue. With the international market continuing to shrink, Austria had no choice but to reduce production, and many capitalists involved in agricultural processing had already begun to shift their focus.

In this context, it became inevitable to protect domestic agriculture, and reducing agricultural imports was a necessity.

Even before the agricultural crisis erupted, the Austrian government was prepared to abandon the agricultural processing industry. There was no choice as this industry had little technical content and could only serve as a foundational sector for early industrialization.

In recent years, agricultural processing enterprises in various European countries have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, leading to increasingly fierce market competition. Austria had managed to maintain its dominance in agricultural processing mainly because it controlled a large portion of raw grain production.

Clearly, this situation could not continue. Since the onset of the agricultural crisis, countries no longer struggled to secure raw materials for their agricultural processing industries, and Austria’s cost advantage had disappeared.

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Given this background, continuing to invest heavily in this industry would be less effective than channeling resources into emerging industries to drive the Second Industrial Revolution and widen the gap in capabilities.

Without the government’s focused support, the more profitable segments of the agricultural processing industry could still survive, but enterprises lacking technical content, like flour mills, would face tough times.

This was an inevitable outcome of economic development: the higher the technical content of a company, the more significant its competitive advantage. Companies lacking in technology would find themselves trapped in a vicious cycle of price wars, making it difficult to advance further.

At this point, businesses had to either transform or upgrade their technology. For instance, they needed to develop more new products—the variety of foods found in supermarkets in later times was all driven by such realities.

To survive, agricultural processing enterprises could no longer just process a single product. They had to increase the number of production stages, enhance technical content, and raise the added value of their products.

In the long term, this agricultural crisis also spurred the upgrading of Austria’s agricultural processing industry. In 1872, the variety of biscuits, canned goods, and various junk foods available in Vienna had increased more than in the previous five years combined.

These high-value-added products brought a resurgence of life to many companies, revitalizing them. Meanwhile, slower-to-adapt companies continued to struggle.

From a modern perspective, the competition of this era was relatively mild. Even in the most competitive sector, like flour mills, companies could still generate decent profits if managed well, far from operating at a loss just to stay in business.

Prime Minister Felix sternly declared, “Regardless of the reasons, the Polish provocation must be met with a strong response, so they understand our strength. If necessary, we can take military action to bring them to their senses.”

The mention of military action caused Franz to furrow his brow. He felt that the situation was not as simple as it appeared. Even if the Poles had lost their minds, there was no logical reason for them to provoke Austria.

Before Franz could speak, Finance Minister Karl voiced his opposition.

“Punishing the Poles is easy, and it wouldn’t even be difficult to capture Warsaw. The problem is, what benefit would we gain from it? The current international situation isn’t conducive to expansion, and the Kingdom of Poland is dirt poor. Unless we accept Polish agricultural products as compensation, we might not even recoup our military expenses.”

Waging war in anger is a grave mistake in military strategy.

Although Poland’s land is valuable, Franz found it hard to muster any ambition for it. After the war for independence, Polish nationalism had already risen, making it incredibly difficult to assimilate them.

Gaining a fertile tract of land at the cost of planting the seeds of division within the empire would be a complete loss. Franz had no intention of taking on such a ticking time bomb—whoever wanted it could have it, but it wouldn’t be kept in his own house.

As for accepting Polish agricultural products as compensation, that was even more laughable. It would be like Britain and France accepting German industrial goods as reparations after World War I.

The Germans, who couldn’t open British and French markets for their industrial goods through war, ironically achieved this goal through post-war reparations.

England and France, blinded by temporary gains, paid a heavy price for this. The influx of cheap German industrial products led to the decline of British and French industries.

At the start of World War II, Germany, as one of the defeated countries, had an industry that surpassed the sum of Britain and France, which was quite ironic.

The Austrian government would never do something so foolish. They were too busy protecting domestic agriculture to sacrifice it for a small gain.

“First, we should issue a warning to the Polish government, ordering them to suppress the anti-Austrian movement in their country by Christmas. Otherwise, we will hold a military parade in Warsaw.”

While Franz had no interest in Poland, that didn’t mean he wouldn’t use the threat of force. If the Polish government really lost its senses, Franz wouldn’t hesitate to fight a war.

However, this would only benefit the Russians. If Poland were severely weakened, Franz doubted what the Kingdom of Prussia could use to fight in the next Russo-Prussian War.

Whether it was Alexander II or Alexander III, neither was an easy opponent, and the Russian Empire’s war potential far exceeded that of Prussia.

Having suffered once before, the Russians would be cautious and avoid reckless attacks. As long as the Russian government fought steadily, any war would become a battle of attrition, which Prussia could not sustain against the Russians.

In this context, the Kingdom of Poland became crucial. If the Prussians were ruthless enough to conscript a million soldiers from Poland, they might avoid being overwhelmed by Russian human wave tactics.

One thing Franz was certain of. This time, the Russian government would not face a grain shortage.

Even if Russia’s transportation issues remained unresolved, the Russian government would stockpile enough strategic supplies before the outbreak of war.

This time, the Prussians would not catch the Russians off guard. And the Russian government would not start a war until they were fully prepared.

The Austro-Russian alliance still had a few years left, during which Prussia could not initiate an attack without dragging Austria into the conflict.

Franz shook his head, dismissing these scattered thoughts. Why worry so much? International affairs are ever-changing, and no one can predict what tomorrow will bring.

Perhaps by the time the Russo-Prussian War breaks out, the situation will have changed again. Austria’s strength is also rapidly growing. By then, Austria may have left them far behind.

As long as Austria’s own power is strong enough, any challenge can be met without fear. By that time, the outcome of the Russo-Prussian War may no longer even matter to Austria.