Blacksmith vs. the System

The temptation to start playing with my skills to see the impact of the most recent discovery was difficult to resist but I managed to hold on and focused on the problem that was most urgent, with the data available to me.

What determined whether people could advance their skills naturally or not?

The data I had managed to collect, along with the other observations, suggested that it was not an accident. It seemed like there were some seriously strong correlations in terms of certain behavior patterns, like being outspoken, taking initiative, and general courage.

But, I did my best not to make a rash judgment. The correlation was clear, but one statement held true. Correlation didn't equal causation. A simple sentence, but very hard to comprehend, and very dangerous when not applied properly.

Therefore, I ignored my desire to come to a quick conclusion just because I had noticed a beautiful statistical link and instead started to outline all the different analyses I needed to run once Maria returned, and how to process the data I got from Eleanor. Which variables to dig deep into, the possible causation links, and the data required to prove them… everything.

I was on the first floor, taking a large pile of notes, sitting at the same hilltop that we had used for other experiments, enough to make me glad that Dexterity also helped with the speed of my handwriting significantly.

I probably worked on the data for more than half a day, deciding all the ways to dice the survey results when I got interrupted by the arrival of Maria and Eleanor.

"Wow, you look busy," Eleanor started as she arrived at the hilltop in one smooth jump, even swatching her giving me a sense of vertigo, carrying Maria at the same time.

"There's a lot of data to go through," I said.

She looked at it, but then I caught a hesitant glance on her face. "Would you be angry if I told you all your work here kind of went to waste," she said.

I looked at her, suddenly afraid. "What do you mean?" I asked, afraid that she would admit tempering with the data as a joke or something equally asinine. Over my career, I had to deal with that particular 'joke' a few times during my career, by people who didn't understand that I would have been more accepting if they set my bed on fire … while I was sleeping on it.

"Well … I kind of already solved the mystery of skill upgrades."

"And, you expect me to be angry about it?" I asked, looking surprised.

"Yeah," she added hesitantly, looking surprised. Next to her, Maria had a similar expression.

I chuckled. "The whole point of what we're doing is to discover something. If you actually solved it, I'll be happy."

"Really?" she asked.

"Of course. Especially since we're not working for a university that would fire me because I don't have my name on the paper," I added, shivering slightly. Publish or perish culture had been scarier than the dungeon monsters.

"That's an admirable perspective," Maria added.

"So, what's this solved mystery?" I asked.

"It's the dungeon," Eleanor declared confidently.

"Really?" I asked.

"Easy," she said. "I have helped five hundred farmers to improve their skills as you asked. Eighty percent of the ones that entered the dungeon had managed to get the skill upgrade, while the ones that did not, only thirty percent achieved it."

"How about the nearest town?"

"Even better. Only ten percent of them succeeded," she said. "It proves that …" she said, but then paused. "Right?" she added, probably due to my soft smile.

"Not exactly," I said as I gestured for her to sit down. "What you have discovered here is called correlation, as in the relationship between two numbers. That's not enough to conclude that something in the dungeon allows them to break through their skill."

"I don't get it," she said.

"It's normal," I said. "What you did is common sense, and for most cases, it's enough to go through life. We take what we know, and link them together. Let me give you an old-world example, what would you say if I said ice cream caused heat strokes? If we check the data, the more ice cream sold, the more people are admitted to hospital."

"That it's total nonsense, of course," she said. "People eat more ice cream when it's hot outside. But, that's obvious."

"True," I said. "But, you know that because it's an example where we know why people get heat strokes. However, what if you don't know the link in the first place. What if I told you that children who know how to play an instrument get into better colleges. Does it mean learning an instrument makes people smarter? Or just that they come from richer households that can afford to send them to private lessons. Or, maybe admission committees like it on their CVs."

This time, both of them frowned. "But, it makes sense," Maria interrupted.

"It does, because dungeons mean faster leveling and a lot of resources. Dungeons somehow influencing the level cap is believable as well," I added.

"You don't believe it," Eleanor said, sharp enough to see what I was getting at.

"No, I don't," I said. "I have my own hypothesis about why."

"And, what makes yours better?" she asked, challenging.

I liked her tone. "Nothing," I admitted.

"Nothing?" she said.

"Well, nothing at the moment. What we both have is a bunch of observations, run through our common sense. It makes a good hypothesis, but that's it."

"Then, what do we do now?" she said.

"Well, there's a reason I made them fill all those surveys. We're going to check all the data and see if we can find some stronger correlation, and from there, start designing experimental and observational setups that might discover the causation —" I said, then I noticed that Eleanor looked ashamed. "Don't tell me," I gasped.

Her bag wasn't big enough to hold all the surveys I had asked her to collect.

"Don't worry, I collected them all. I just didn't bring them with me, and left them at home."

I let out a relieved sigh. "That's good," I admitted.

"Does it mean I have to go to the town and collect them?" I just nodded. "Not fun," she complained.

"Well, that's only if you want your mana skill. If you don't…"

"Fine," she grumbled before she left, leaving me alone with Maria.

Maria waited until Eleanor was far away before she started speaking. "You seemed pretty confident when you dismissed Eleanor's assumption. Why?"

"Because of the same patterns I had noticed while helping the group at the third-floor outpost level up. Did you know the more outspoken they are, the higher their rate of skill upgrade appears," I said.

"That's …"

"Silly, absurd, nonsense?" I completed her sentences.

She blushed slightly. "Well, something along those lines. You're claiming that the more courageous they are, the easier for the skills to upgrade."

"Well, yes and no," I said. "There seems to be a strong correlation that explains a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be complete nonsense."

"What a waste of time," she said, then paused. "Sorry. It just feels like…"

"A lot of wasted effort," I added. She nodded sheepishly. "Don't worry about it. It's not an insult. There's no scientist that hasn't come up with hundreds of nonsense, absolutely stupid ideas with absolutely nothing to do with reality, that any sane person wouldn't have entertained for a second, achieving nothing but wasted time."

"And, that's useful?"

"Yes, because, occasionally, some of those ideas lead to the discovery of a fungus that can kill bacteria, saving billions of lives."

"And, how do we separate those groundbreaking ones from hundreds of nonsensical claims?"

"We come to the fun part of science. There's no easy way. We will constantly build hypotheses, check the data, validate results, and start with a new set all along, all the while hoping that we're going in the right direction."

"Sounds inefficient."

"It is. Science is a lot like prospecting. A structured approach means that, instead of just digging blindly, you use advanced methods to check the ground. But, no matter how advanced your methods, you can't find anything if there's nothing there."

"And, you are hopeful that courage is the answer for it. And, you can't be serious in expecting the results in Eleanor's data."

"Actually, I somewhat did," I admitted. "It's a little more complicated than that. But, before I go deeper, let me share with you an interesting anecdote. Back in the old world, children born in the first three months are almost twice as likely to become a pro than the ones born from October to December."

She frowned. "If you come to me with some horoscope nonsense—" she started.

I chuckled. "Not in the slightest. The mechanism is simple. We have split youth leagues based on age, which meant, from an absolute perspective, children born in January always had several months of development advantage. It means they get better opportunities, which snowballs into an overrepresentation."

"And, how does it link back to the great difference between the ones that have accessed the dungeon, and those who did not?" she asked.

"Simple. It's a tainted sample, similar to youth leagues. The farmers that joined us are volunteers."

"The ones that are brave enough to leave the city and potentially risk themselves in a new town, joining people they knew nothing about," Maria completed.

"Exactly," I said even as I pushed a thick stack of papers in front of her.

"Are these your conclusions or something?" she asked.

I laughed. "No. Those are all the different analyses that we need to run. Each page describes an analysis, the method of calculation, and possible follow-ups based on the results."

"B-but, there has to be at least five hundred pages here," she said. "Even with Intelligence, it'll take hours."

"Yes," I smiled, feeling excited that I was finally doing proper research work. "Isn't science fun?"